MeritValue

CARLISLE COMPANIES INC

CSLdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CARLISLE COMPANIES INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 19% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $184.08 and $988.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.84B1$5.45B2$4.59B3$5B3$5.02B3
Net income$421.7M4$924M5$767.4M6$1.31B6$740.7M6
Operating cash flow$421.7M7$1B8$1.2B9$1.03B9$1.1B9
Capital expenditure$134.8M10$183.5M11$142.2M12$113.3M12$131.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$286.9M7$817.4M8$1.06B9$917M9$970.6M9
Total debt$5.85B13$5.17B14$4.58B15$3.78B16$5.77B16
Cash & equivalents$324.4M17$364.8M18$576.7M19$753.5M20$1.11B20
Diluted shares53.2M52.5M50.4M47.1M43.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$415.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$171.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$224.68
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,336.3

10 shares is a claim on $415.6 of net worth that earned you $171.46 and generated $224.68 of cash last year, against $1,336.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 16%FY25 12%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−19% shares · 5y

Share count is down 19% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $184.08 and $988.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$988.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.3%
  • fcfBase$970.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$551.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.3%
  • fcfBase$970.6M
Earnings Power Value
$184.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$767.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$126.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $551.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$213.12
Base17.3%$551.9
Bull20.0%$624.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-23-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000790051-23-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000790051-24-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000790051-25-000077 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000790051-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)