MeritValue

COSTAR GROUP, INC.

CSGPdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COSTAR GROUP, INC. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.05 and $7.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.94B1$2.18B2$2.46B3$2.74B3$3.25B3
Net income$292.6M4$369.5M5$375M6$139M6$7M6
Operating cash flow$469.7M7$478.7M8$490M9$393M9$430M9
Capital expenditure$123.7M10$35.2M11$118M12$579M12$307M12
Free cash flow (derived)$346M7$443.5M8$372M9−$186M9$123M9
Total debt$1.99B13$1.99B14$1.99B15$1.99B16$1.13B16
Cash & equivalents$3.8B17$5B18$5.2B19$4.68B20$1.63B20
Diluted shares394.2M397.8M406.9M407.8M420.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$198.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.17
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$26.93

10 shares is a claim on $198.1 of net worth that earned you $0.17 and generated $2.92 of cash last year, against $26.93 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 10%FY23 10%FY24 3%FY25 0%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.05 and $7.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$5.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$123M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.37
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$123M
Earnings Power Value
$7.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$292.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.99
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.37
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.37
Base0.0%$5.37
Bull5.0%$6.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-23-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001057352-23-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001057352-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001057352-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001057352-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)