MeritValue

CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.

CSCOdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'

The thesis, from the filings

CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $29.32 and $32.67 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$51.6B1$57B2$53.8B3$56.7B3$63.3B3
Net income$11.8B4$12.6B5$10.3B6$10.2B6$13.3B6
Operating cash flow$13.2B7$19.9B8$10.9B9$14.2B9$14.2B9
Capital expenditure$477M10$849M11$670M12$905M12$1.41B12
Free cash flow (derived)$12.7B7$19B8$10.2B9$13.3B9$12.8B9
Total debt$18.9B13$18.5B14$51.6B15$54.5B16$55.9B16
Cash & equivalents$7.08B17$10.1B18$7.51B19$8.35B20$7.22B20
Diluted shares4.19B4.11B4.06B4.00B3.99B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$126.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.28
Free cash flow it threw off
$32.02
Debt you’d be carrying
$140.22

10 shares is a claim on $126.12 of net worth that earned you $33.28 and generated $32.02 of cash last year, against $140.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY22 23%FY23 25%FY24 12%FY25 11%FY26 13%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 195% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $29.32 and $32.67 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$29.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$32.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$12.8B
Earnings Power Value
$30.29
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$11.8B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$30.9
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $32.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.67
Base0.0%$32.67
Bull5.0%$43.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-07-26 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-07-26 · accession 0000858877-26-000132 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)