MeritValue

CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.

CSCOdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.45 and $35.95 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$49.8B1$51.6B2$57B3$53.8B3$56.7B3
Net income$10.6B4$11.8B5$12.6B6$10.3B6$10.2B6
Operating cash flow$15.5B7$13.2B8$19.9B9$10.9B9$14.2B9
Capital expenditure$692M10$477M11$849M12$670M12$905M12
Free cash flow (derived)$14.8B7$12.7B8$19B9$10.2B9$13.3B9
Total debt$25.6B13$18.9B14$18.5B15$51.6B16$54.5B16
Cash & equivalents$9.18B17$7.08B18$10.1B19$7.51B20$8.35B20
Diluted shares4.24B4.19B4.11B4.06B4.00B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$117.17
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.46
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$136.2

10 shares is a claim on $117.17 of net worth that earned you $25.46 and generated $33.24 of cash last year, against $136.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 23%FY23 25%FY24 12%FY25 11%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 113% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.45 and $35.95 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.38
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$13.3B
Earnings Power Value
$27.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.6B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$25.93
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.95
Base0.0%$35.95
Bull5.0%$47.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-22-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-07-31 · accession 0000858877-22-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-30 · accession 0000858877-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-29 · accession 0000858877-24-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-27 · accession 0000858877-25-000111 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)