MeritValue

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

CRWDdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. earns about -7% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $164.52 and $286.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.45B1$2.24B2$3.06B3$3.95B3$4.81B3
Net income−$234.8M4−$183.2M5$72.2M6−$15.2M6−$162.5M6
Operating cash flow$574.8M7$941M8$1.17B9$1.38B9$1.61B9
Capital expenditure$112.1M10$235M11$176.5M12$254.9M12$302.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$462.6M7$706M8$989.7M9$1.13B9$1.31B9
Total debt$739.5M13$741M14$742.5M15$744M16$745.5M16
Cash & equivalents$2B17$2.46B18$3.38B19$4.32B19$5.23B19
Diluted shares227.1M233.1M243.6M244.8M250.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$176.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$52.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.75

10 shares is a claim on $176.73 of net worth that earned you −$6.49 and generated $52.29 of cash last year, against $29.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-7% avg · 5y
FY22 -23%FY23 -13%FY24 3%FY25 -0%FY26 -4%

It earned about -7% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $164.52 and $286.11 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$286.11
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.13B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$164.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.13B
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $164.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$82.15
Base20.0%$164.52
Bull20.0%$164.52

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001535527-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001535527-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001535527-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)