MeritValue

CervoMed Inc.

CRVOdata completeness 75%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CervoMed Inc. earns about -72% on equity, but has diluted owners by 344% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$7.14M2$9.74M3$4.01M3
Net income−$24.1M4−$5.8M5−$2.17M6−$16.3M7−$27M7
Operating cash flow−$14.5M8−$2.57M9−$7.45M10−$16.5M11−$23.4M11
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$37.3M12$4.09M13$7.79M14$9M15$8.24M15
Diluted shares2.0M518,1402.7M8.1M9.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$20.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.82
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $20.15 of net worth that earned you −$29.82 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-72% avg · 5y
FY21 -69%FY22 —FY23 -29%FY24 -42%FY25 -148%

It earned an average -72% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+344% shares · 5y

Share count is up 344% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010064 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007829 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008259 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007795 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007829 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008259 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007795 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007829 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008259 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007795 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-010064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007829 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-008259 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)