Criteo S.A.
CRTOdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on fileCriteo S.A. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.1 and $53.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.25B1 | $2.02B2 | $1.95B3 | $1.93B3 | $1.94B3 |
| Net income | $134.5M4 | $8.95M5 | $53.3M6 | $111.6M6 | $144.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $220.9M7 | $256M8 | $224.2M9 | $258.2M9 | $311.2M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | $63.8M10 | $116.1M11 | $78.1M11 | $102.7M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | $192.2M8 | $108.1M9 | $180M9 | $208.5M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $515.5M12 | $348.2M13 | $336.3M14 | $290.7M15 | $342M15 |
| Diluted shares | 64.2M | 62.8M | 60.2M | 58.6M | 54.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $209.74 of net worth that earned you $26.39 and generated $38.05 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.1 and $53.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$180M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$180M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$111.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $53.19 |
| Base | 0.0% | $53.19 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $64.56 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576427-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576427-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576427-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576427-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576427-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576427-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576427-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576427-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576427-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576427-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576427-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001576427-23-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001576427-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001576427-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001576427-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)