CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
CRSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.84 and $101.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.84B1 | $2.55B2 | $2.76B3 | $2.88B3 | $3.12B3 |
| Net income | −$49.1M4 | $56.4M5 | $186.5M6 | $376M6 | $529.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $6M7 | $14.7M8 | $274.9M9 | $440.4M9 | $605M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $91.3M10 | $82.3M11 | $96.6M12 | $154.3M12 | $242.7M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$85.3M7 | −$67.6M8 | $178.3M9 | $286.1M9 | $362.3M9 |
| Total debt | $691.8M13 | $693M14 | $694.2M15 | $695.4M16 | $690.7M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $154.2M17 | $44.5M18 | $199.1M19 | $315.5M20 | $393.3M20 |
| Diluted shares | 48.5M | 49.2M | 50.3M | 50.7M | 50.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $441.98 of net worth that earned you $105.12 and generated $71.88 of cash last year, against $137.04 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.84 and $101.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$286.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$286.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.8%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$186.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $73.67 |
| Base | 5.0% | $92.88 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $115.86 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0000017843-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)