MeritValue

CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP

CRSdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP earns about 4% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.53 and $202.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.48B1$1.84B2$2.55B3$2.76B3$2.88B3
Net income−$229.6M4−$49.1M5$56.4M6$186.5M6$376M6
Operating cash flow$250M7$6M8$14.7M9$274.9M9$440.4M9
Capital expenditure$100.5M10$91.3M11$82.3M12$96.6M12$154.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$149.5M7−$85.3M8−$67.6M9$178.3M9$286.1M9
Total debt$694.5M13$691.8M14$693M15$694.2M16$695.4M16
Cash & equivalents$287.4M17$154.2M18$44.5M19$199.1M20$315.5M20
Diluted shares48.3M48.5M49.2M50.3M50.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$372.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$74.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$56.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$137.16

10 shares is a claim on $372.19 of net worth that earned you $74.16 and generated $56.43 of cash last year, against $137.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 -12%FY22 -1%FY23 5%FY24 9%FY25 17%

It earned about 4% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.53 and $202.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$202.25
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$178.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$178.3M
Earnings Power Value
$11.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$56.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$78.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.75
Base20.0%$107.17
Bull20.0%$107.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-22-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0000017843-22-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0000017843-23-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0000017843-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0000017843-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)