MeritValue

Crocs, Inc.

CROXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Crocs, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $138.73 and $738.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.31B1$3.55B2$3.96B3$4.1B3$4.04B3
Net income$725.7M4$540.2M5$792.6M6$950.1M6−$81.2M6
Operating cash flow$567.2M7$603.1M8$930.4M9$992.5M9$710.4M9
Capital expenditure$55.9M10$104.2M11$115.6M12$69.3M12$51.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$511.2M7$499M8$814.8M9$923.1M9$659.2M9
Total debt$771.4M13$2.32B14$1.66B15$1.35B16$1.23B16
Cash & equivalents$213.2M17$191.6M18$149.3M19$180.5M20$130.4M20
Diluted shares63.7M62.0M62.0M59.8M54.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$238.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$121.61
Debt you’d be carrying
$227.07

10 shares is a claim on $238.58 of net worth that earned you −$14.98 and generated $121.61 of cash last year, against $227.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY21 120%FY22 22%FY23 32%FY24 30%FY25 2%

It earned about 41% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 60% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $138.73 and $738.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$738.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$814.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$428.95
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$814.8M
Earnings Power Value
$138.73
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$725.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $428.95
The three cases
Bear0.0%$194.46
Base17.8%$428.95
Bull20.0%$469.77

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001334036-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001334036-24-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001334036-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001334036-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)