MeritValue

Cronos Group Inc.

CRONdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Cronos Group Inc. earns about -10% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.6M1$86.7M2$87.2M3$117.6M3$146.6M3
Net income−$396.1M4−$168.7M5−$74M6$41.1M6−$9.45M6
Operating cash flow−$153.6M7−$88.9M8−$42.8M9$18.8M9$25.9M9
Capital expenditure$11.1M10$3.45M11$2.51M12$12.4M12$25.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$164.8M7−$92.4M8−$45.3M9$6.43M9$149,0009
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$887M13$764.6M14$669.3M15$858.8M16$791.8M16
Diluted shares370.4M377.0M381.0M385.6M383.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.53
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.25
Free cash flow it threw off
$0
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.53 of net worth that earned you −$0.25 and generated $0 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-10% avg · 5y
FY21 -23%FY22 -25%FY23 -14%FY24 18%FY25 -4%

It earned about -10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$149,000
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$149,000
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.07
Base5.0%$2.07
Bull10.0%$2.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001656472-24-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001656472-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001656472-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001656472-24-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001656472-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001656472-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001656472-24-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001656472-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001656472-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001656472-24-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001656472-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001656472-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001656472-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001656472-24-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001656472-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001656472-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)