MeritValue

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

CRNXdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Crinetics Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns about -42% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 145% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$01$01$4.01M2$1.04M2$7.7M2
Net income−$107.6M3−$163.9M4−$214.5M5−$298.4M5−$465.3M5
Operating cash flow−$88.6M6−$115.2M7−$168.6M8−$230.2M8−$377.9M8
Capital expenditure$436,0009$1.66M10$4.69M11$3.84M11$5.76M11
Free cash flow (derived)−$89M6−$116.9M7−$173.3M8−$234M8−$383.7M8
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$200.7M12$32.7M13$54.9M14$264.5M14$101.5M14
Diluted shares38.4M52.0M58.1M80.8M94.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$105.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$49.47
Free cash flow it threw off
−$40.79
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $105.48 of net worth that earned you −$49.47 and generated −$40.79 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-42% avg · 5y
FY21 -65%FY22 -46%FY23 -35%FY24 -22%FY25 -41%

It earned an average -42% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+145% shares · 5y

Share count is up 145% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005132 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658247-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022108 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658247-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022108 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658247-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022108 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658247-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022108 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001658247-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)