MeritValue

Salesforce, Inc.

CRMdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Salesforce, Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.83 and $753.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$26.5B1$31.4B2$34.9B3$37.9B3$41.5B3
Net income$1.44B4$208M5$4.14B6$6.2B6$7.46B6
Operating cash flow$6B7$7.11B8$10.2B9$13.1B9$15B9
Capital expenditure$717M10$798M11$736M12$658M12$594M12
Free cash flow (derived)$5.28B7$6.31B8$9.5B9$12.4B9$14.4B9
Total debt$21.2B13$21.2B14$18.9B15$16.9B16$28.9B16
Cash & equivalents$5.46B17$7.02B18$8.47B19$8.85B20$7.33B20
Diluted shares974.0M997.0M984.0M974.0M956.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$618.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$78
Free cash flow it threw off
$150.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$302.07

10 shares is a claim on $618.64 of net worth that earned you $78 and generated $150.65 of cash last year, against $302.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 2%FY23 1%FY24 6%FY25 9%FY26 10%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 36% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.83 and $753.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$753.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$401.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.4B
Earnings Power Value
$44.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.14B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$104.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $401.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$163.29
Base20.0%$401.51
Bull20.0%$401.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001108524-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001108524-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001108524-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-01-31 · accession 0001108524-26-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)