MeritValue

Cresco Labs Inc.

CRLBFdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cresco Labs Inc. earns about -12% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 35% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.84 and $1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$821.7M1$842.7M2$770.9M3$724.3M4$655.8M4
Net income−$319.6M5−$212M6−$175.5M7−$74.4M8−$135.4M8
Operating cash flow$14.5M9$18.7M10$58.6M11$132.5M12$72.9M12
Capital expenditure$93.9M13$83M14$55.4M15$19.5M16$35.1M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$79.4M9−$64.3M10$3.18M11$113M12$37.8M12
Total debt——$511.5M17$475.3M18$431.2M18
Cash & equivalents$223.5M19$121.5M20$103.4M21$137.6M22$57.9M22
Diluted shares262.3M298.2M323.8M345.5M355.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$9.59
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.06
Debt you’d be carrying
$12.15

10 shares is a claim on $9.59 of net worth that earned you −$3.81 and generated $1.06 of cash last year, against $12.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-12% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -15%FY23 -9%FY24 3%FY25 -6%

It earned about -12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+35% shares · 5y

Share count is up 35% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 16% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.84 and $1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$37.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$37.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.84
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.47
Base5.0%$0.84
Bull10.0%$1.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001832928-23-000003 (Revenue)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001832928-24-000024 (Revenue)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001832928-23-000003 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001832928-24-000024 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001832928-23-000003 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001832928-24-000024 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001832928-23-000003 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001832928-24-000024 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001832928-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001832928-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001832928-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)