MeritValue

COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC

CRKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC earns about 8% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 27% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.85B1$3.63B2$1.57B3$1.25B3$2.22B3
Net income−$259.2M4$1.12B5$211.1M6−$229.7M6$395.6M6
Operating cash flow$860.9M7$1.7B8$1.02B9$620.3M9$899.6M9
Capital expenditure$691M10$1.07B11$1.43B12$1.1B12$1.35B12
Free cash flow (derived)$169.9M7$630.6M8−$408.2M9−$477.1M9−$449.7M9
Total debt$2.62B13$2.15B14$2.64B15$2.95B16$2.81B16
Cash & equivalents$30.7M17$54.7M18$16.7M19$6.8M20$23.9M20
Diluted shares231.6M277.5M276.8M287.0M294.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$89.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.45
Free cash flow it threw off
−$15.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$95.5

10 shares is a claim on $89.99 of net worth that earned you $13.45 and generated −$15.29 of cash last year, against $95.5 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 29%FY23 7%FY24 -6%FY25 8%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+27% shares · 5y

Share count is up 27% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$211.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000023194-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000023194-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016532 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-024783 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-059001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)