MeritValue

CARTERS INC

CRIdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CARTERS INC earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.05 and $103.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$3.49B1$3.21B2$2.95B3$2.84B3$2.9B3
Net income$339.7M4$250M5$232.5M6$185.5M6$91.8M6
Operating cash flow$268.3M7$88.4M8$529.1M9$298.8M9$122.3M9
Capital expenditure$37.4M10$40.4M11$59.9M12$56.2M12$53.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$230.8M7$48M8$469.3M9$242.6M9$68.6M9
Total debt$991.4M13$616.6M14$497.4M15$498.1M16$567.2M16
Cash & equivalents$984.3M17$211.7M18$351.2M19$412.9M20$487.1M20
Diluted shares43.0M38.9M36.6M35.5M35.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$261.28
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$160.2

10 shares is a claim on $261.28 of net worth that earned you $25.93 and generated $19.38 of cash last year, against $160.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY22 40%FY22 24%FY23 26%FY24 22%FY26 12%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.05 and $103.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$100.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$242.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$103.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.7%
  • fcfBase$242.6M
Earnings Power Value
$68.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$232.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $103.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$95.65
Base1.7%$103.12
Bull6.7%$128.31

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-23-000066 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001060822-23-000066 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001060822-24-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001060822-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001060822-26-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)