MeritValue

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd

CRDOdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 113% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.93 and $9.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$106.5M1$184.2M2$193M3$436.8M3$1.34B3
Net income−$22.2M4−$16.5M5−$28.4M6$52.2M6$472.3M6
Operating cash flow−$30.8M7−$24.6M8$32.7M9$65.1M9$464.3M9
Capital expenditure$17.6M10$21.7M11$15.7M12$36.1M12$57.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$48.4M7−$46.3M8$17.1M9$29M9$407M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$259.3M13$108.6M14$66.9M15$236.3M16$1.16B16
Diluted shares88.4M146.6M155.1M181.2M188.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$109.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$25.09
Free cash flow it threw off
$21.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $109.63 of net worth that earned you $25.09 and generated $21.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY22 -23%FY23 -6%FY24 -4%FY25 12%FY26 53%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+113% shares · 5y

Share count is up 113% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.93 and $9.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$29M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$24.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.93
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.39
Base5.0%$8.93
Bull10.0%$9.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-029629 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001628280-25-033813 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001628280-26-043303 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-029629 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001628280-25-033813 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001628280-26-043303 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-029629 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001628280-25-033813 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001628280-26-043303 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-24-029629 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001628280-25-033813 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001628280-26-043303 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0001628280-23-023187 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-29 · accession 0001628280-24-029629 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-27 · accession 0001628280-25-033813 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-05-03 · accession 0001628280-26-043303 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)