Circle Internet Group, Inc.
CRCLdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Circle Internet Group, Inc. earns about 35% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 135% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.16 and $49.22 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $19.9M1 | $15.2M1 | $109.8M1 |
| Net income | $267.6M2 | $155.7M2 | −$69.5M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $139.6M3 | $344.6M3 | $542.1M3 |
| Capital expenditure | $654,0004 | $18.1M4 | $12.4M4 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $138.9M3 | $326.4M3 | $529.7M3 |
| Total debt | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $368.6M5 | $751M5 | $1.53B5 |
| Diluted shares | 67.5M | 73.0M | 158.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $209.79 of net worth that earned you −$4.38 and generated $33.38 of cash last year.
It earned about 35% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 135% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.16 and $49.22 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$326.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$326.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$155.7M
- growthAssumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $39.01 |
| Base | 5.0% | $46.12 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $54.63 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001876042-26-000062 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001876042-26-000062 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001876042-26-000062 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001876042-26-000062 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001876042-26-000062 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)