MeritValue

California Resources Corp

CRCdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

California Resources Corp earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $62.13 and $200 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.05B1$2.64B2$2.16B3$2.54B3$2.91B3
Net income$612M4$524M5$564M6$376M6$363M6
Operating cash flow$660M7$690M8$653M9$610M9$865M9
Capital expenditure$194M10$379M11$185M12$255M12$322M12
Free cash flow (derived)$466M7$311M8$468M9$355M9$543M9
Total debt$1.18B13$1.18B14$1.08B15$2.26B16$1.28B16
Cash & equivalents$305M17$307M18$496M19$372M20$132M20
Diluted shares83.0M77.6M72.5M81.4M87.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$420.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$41.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$62.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$146.8

10 shares is a claim on $420.37 of net worth that earned you $41.53 and generated $62.13 of cash last year, against $146.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 19%FY23 20%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $62.13 and $200 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$200
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.6%
  • fcfBase$468M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$128.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.6%
  • fcfBase$468M
Earnings Power Value
$62.13
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$524M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$62.65
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $128.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.34
Base14.6%$128.03
Bull19.6%$158.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001609253-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001609253-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001609253-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001609253-26-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)