MeritValue

CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC.

CRAIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC. earns about 27% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $67.32 and $73.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$565.9M1$590.9M2$624M3$687.4M3$751.6M3
Net income$41.7M4$43.6M5$38.5M6$46.7M6$54.8M6
Operating cash flow$75.7M7$25.1M8$60.1M9$49.7M9$22.4M9
Capital expenditure$2.62M10$3.81M11$2.37M12$16.6M12$3.87M12
Free cash flow (derived)$73.1M7$21.3M8$57.7M9$33.1M9$18.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$66.1M13$31.4M14$45.6M15$26.7M16$18.2M16
Diluted shares7.6M7.4M7.1M6.9M6.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$318.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$81.59
Free cash flow it threw off
$27.64
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $318.14 of net worth that earned you $81.59 and generated $27.64 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
27% avg · 5y
FY22 30%FY22 25%FY23 25%FY24 25%FY26 28%

It earned about 27% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $67.32 and $73.18 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$67.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$73.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
Earnings Power Value
$67.32
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$43.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$76.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $73.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$73.18
Base0.0%$73.18
Bull5.0%$90.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001053706-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001053706-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001053706-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001053706-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001053706-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001053706-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001053706-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001053706-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001053706-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001053706-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001053706-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001053706-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001053706-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001053706-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001053706-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001053706-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)