MeritValue

Crane Co

CRdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Crane Co earns about 12% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.83 and $194.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.06B1$1.78B2$1.86B3$2.13B3$2.31B3
Net income$435.4M4$401.1M5$255.9M6$294.7M6$366.6M6
Operating cash flow$185.1M7−$498.8M8$162.1M9$257.8M9$394.8M9
Capital expenditure$35.3M10$33.3M11$39M12$36.6M12$53.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$149.8M7−$532.1M8$123.1M9$221.2M9$341.3M9
Total debt—$399.6M13$497M14$494M15$2.3B15
Cash & equivalents$377.9M16$427M17$329.6M18$306.7M18$506.5M18
Diluted shares59.2M57.2M57.5M58.3M58.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$351.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$62.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$58.24
Debt you’d be carrying
$391.88

10 shares is a claim on $351.72 of net worth that earned you $62.56 and generated $58.24 of cash last year, against $391.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 9%FY23 13%FY24 15%FY25 9%

It earned about 12% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 475% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.83 and $194.59 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$194.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$221.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$92.53
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$221.2M
Earnings Power Value
$64.83
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$366.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$70.38
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $92.53
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.39
Base20.0%$92.53
Bull20.0%$92.53

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008728 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008728 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008728 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008728 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008728 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-006915 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001944013-26-000095 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)