MeritValue

CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES, INC.

CPSSdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SERVICES, INC. earns about 63% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.51 and $170.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$267.8M1$329.7M2$352M3$393.5M3$434.5M3
Net income$47.5M4$86M5$45.3M6$19.2M6$19.3M6
Operating cash flow$198.2M7$215.9M8$238M9$233.8M9$289M9
Capital expenditure$1.98M10$2.15M11$559,00012$433,00012$709,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$196.2M7$213.8M8$237.4M9$233.3M9$288.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$29.9M13$13.5M14$6.17M15$11.7M16$6.32M16
Diluted shares25.8M26.6M25.2M24.3M24.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$128.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.02
Free cash flow it threw off
$119.72
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $128.54 of net worth that earned you $8.02 and generated $119.72 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
63% avg · 5y
FY21 73%FY22 70%FY23 57%FY24 54%FY25 59%

It earned about 63% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.51 and $170.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$170.45
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$237.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$164.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.6%
  • fcfBase$237.4M
Earnings Power Value
$19.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$45.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$15.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $164.74
The three cases
Bear0.0%$141.13
Base3.6%$164.74
Bull8.6%$203.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001499 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001548 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001856 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001499 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001548 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001856 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001499 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001548 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001856 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001499 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001548 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001856 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001683168-23-001562 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001683168-24-001499 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001683168-25-001548 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001683168-26-001856 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)