MeritValue

CPS TECHNOLOGIES CORP/DE/

CPSHdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CPS TECHNOLOGIES CORP/DE/ earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$22.4M1$26.6M2$27.6M3$21.1M4$32.6M4
Net income$3.22M5$2.13M6$1.37M7−$3.14M8$420,3548
Operating cash flow$2.01M9$3.55M10$1.27M11−$3.48M12$243,64412
Capital expenditure$514,32213$439,77214$718,27415$994,26116$730,66216
Free cash flow (derived)$1.49M9$3.11M10$549,17911−$4.47M12−$487,01812
Total debt$154,59017$98,68418$54,88719$8,13020—
Cash & equivalents$5.05M21$8.27M22$8.81M23$3.28M24$4.47M24
Diluted shares14.6M14.7M14.6M14.5M15.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$16.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.27
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.32
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $16.01 of net worth that earned you $0.27 and generated −$0.32 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 28%FY23 16%FY24 -29%FY25 2%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 95% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$0.92
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.37M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.04
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-006687 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-006687 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-006687 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-006687 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-005852 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0001437749-23-006904 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-024423 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001437749-25-008029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001437749-26-006687 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)