MeritValue

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc.

CPSdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. earns about -150% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.61 and $33.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.33B1$2.53B2$2.82B3$2.73B3$2.74B3
Net income−$322.8M4−$215.4M5−$202M6−$78.7M6−$4.17M6
Operating cash flow−$115.5M7−$36.2M8$117.3M9$76.4M9$64.4M9
Capital expenditure$96.1M10$71.2M11$80.7M12$50.5M12$48.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$211.6M7−$107.3M8$36.5M9$25.9M9$16.3M9
Total debt$56.1M13$54.1M14$50.7M15$42.4M16$86.1M16
Cash & equivalents$248M17$186.9M18$154.8M19$170M19$191.7M19
Diluted shares17.0M17.2M17.4M17.6M17.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$46.74
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.33
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.1
Debt you’d be carrying
$48.21

10 shares is a claim on −$46.74 of net worth that earned you −$2.33 and generated $9.1 of cash last year, against $48.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-150% avg · 5y
FY21 -99%FY22 -200%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about -150% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.61 and $33.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$33.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$25.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$25.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.6
Base5.0%$31.61
Bull10.0%$37.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-23-000047 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001320461-24-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001320461-25-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001320461-26-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)