MeritValue

CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.

CPRXdata completeness 88%24 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. earns about 881% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.77 and $103.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$140.8M1$214.2M2$398.2M3$491.7M3$589M3
Net income$39.5M4$83.1M5$71.4M6$163.9M6$214.3M6
Operating cash flow$60.4M7$116M8$143.6M9$239.8M9$208.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.02M10$29,00011$231,00012$556,00012$58,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$59.4M7$116M8$143.4M9$239.3M9$208.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$171.4M13$298.4M14$137.6M15$517.6M16$709.2M16
Diluted shares107.8M111.4M113.8M124.9M127.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$74.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$16.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $74.99 of net worth that earned you $16.84 and generated $16.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
881% avg · 5y
FY21 112%FY22 4101%FY23 29%FY24 78%FY25 87%

It earned about 881% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.77 and $103.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$103.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$208.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$59.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$208.6M
Earnings Power Value
$6.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$83.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $59.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$28.99
Base20.0%$59.02
Bull20.0%$59.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-050908 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027714 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071525 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-050908 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027714 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-197490 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-050908 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027714 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071525 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-050908 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027714 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071525 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-071299 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-050908 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-027714 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071525 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)