MeritValue

Coupang, Inc.

CPNGdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Coupang, Inc. earns about -7% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.86 and $12.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.4B1$20.6B2$24.4B3$30.3B3$34.5B3
Net income−$1.54B4−$92M5$1.36B6$154M6$208M6
Operating cash flow−$411M7$565M8$2.65B9$1.89B9$1.77B9
Capital expenditure$674M10$824M11$896M12$879M12$1.25B12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.09B7−$259M8$1.76B9$1.01B9$522M9
Total debt$632.7M13$842M14$1.01B15$1.53B16$1.61B16
Cash & equivalents$3.49B17$3.51B18$5.24B19$5.88B19$6.32B19
Diluted shares1.42B1.76B1.80B1.83B1.85B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$24.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.12
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.67

10 shares is a claim on $24.92 of net worth that earned you $1.12 and generated $2.81 of cash last year, against $8.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -71%FY22 -4%FY23 33%FY24 4%FY25 4%

It earned about -7% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 154% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.86 and $12.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$12.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.01B
Earnings Power Value
$0.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$154M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.3
Base5.0%$12.17
Bull10.0%$14.42

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-23-000023 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834584-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834584-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834584-26-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)