MeritValue

CENTRAL PACIFIC FINANCIAL CORP

CPFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CENTRAL PACIFIC FINANCIAL CORP earns about 58% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.33 and $63.2 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.7M1$30.4M2$32.9M3$35.5M3$37.6M3
Net income$79.9M4$73.9M5$58.7M6$53.4M6$77.5M6
Operating cash flow$110.5M7$114.1M8$105.1M9$90.5M9$97.5M9
Capital expenditure$22.2M10$18.4M11$12.7M12$15.1M12$5.16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$88.3M7$95.7M8$92.5M9$75.4M9$92.3M9
Total debt$105.6M13$110.9M14$156.1M15$156.3M16$76.5M16
Cash & equivalents$328.9M17$112M18$522.4M18$380.9M18$378.7M18
Diluted shares28.3M27.6M27.1M27.2M27.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$219.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$28.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$34.13
Debt you’d be carrying
$28.3

10 shares is a claim on $219.11 of net worth that earned you $28.65 and generated $34.13 of cash last year, against $28.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
58% avg · 5y
FY21 26%FY22 19%FY23 83%FY24 70%FY25 92%

It earned about 58% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 28% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.33 and $63.2 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$92.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.5%
  • fcfBase$92.3M
Earnings Power Value
$28.33
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$73.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.93
Base1.5%$63.2
Bull6.5%$75.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-24-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000701347-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000701347-26-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)