MeritValue

CAMPBELL'S Co

CPBdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CAMPBELL'S Co earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $26.15 and $29.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.48B1$8.56B2$9.36B3$9.64B3$10.3B3
Net income$1B4$757M5$858M6$567M6$602M6
Operating cash flow$1.04B7$1.18B8$1.14B9$1.19B9$1.13B9
Capital expenditure$275M10$242M11$370M12$517M12$426M12
Free cash flow (derived)$760M7$939M8$773M9$668M9$705M9
Total debt$85M13$1.61B14$369M15$2.82B16$1.49B16
Cash & equivalents$69M17$109M18$189M18$108M19$132M19
Diluted shares305.0M302.0M301.0M300.0M300.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$130.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$23.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$49.8

10 shares is a claim on $130.07 of net worth that earned you $20.07 and generated $23.5 of cash last year, against $49.8 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY21 37%FY22 19%FY23 26%FY24 12%FY25 16%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 1658% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $26.15 and $29.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$705M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$705M
Earnings Power Value
$26.15
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$757M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.04
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.04
Base0.0%$29.04
Bull5.0%$37.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-30 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-30 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-30 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-30 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-22-000093 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-07-30 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-28 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-01 · accession 0000016732-23-000109 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-07-31 · accession 0000016732-24-000130 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-07-28 · accession 0000016732-25-000112 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)