MeritValue

CORPAY, INC.

CPAYdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CORPAY, INC. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 15% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $143.19 and $1,085.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.83B1$3.43B2$3.76B3$3.97B3$4.53B3
Net income$839.5M4$954.3M5$981.9M6$1B6$1.07B6
Operating cash flow$1.2B7$754.8M8$2.1B9$1.94B9$1.5B9
Capital expenditure$111.5M10$151.4M11$153.8M12$175.2M12$200.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.09B7$603.4M8$1.95B9$1.77B9$1.3B9
Total debt$7.5B13$9.35B14$8.85B15$10.8B16$13.3B16
Cash & equivalents$1.52B17$1.44B18$1.39B19$1.55B19$2.41B19
Diluted shares84.1M76.9M74.4M71.8M71.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$546.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$150.56
Free cash flow it threw off
$182.83
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,878.36

10 shares is a claim on $546.58 of net worth that earned you $150.56 and generated $182.83 of cash last year, against $1,878.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 8%FY25 7%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 78% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $143.19 and $1,085.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,085.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$1.77B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$583.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.6%
  • fcfBase$1.77B
Earnings Power Value
$143.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$981.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$135.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $583.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$201.02
Base17.6%$583.88
Bull20.0%$656.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008060 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005444 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008060 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005444 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008746 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001175454-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)