MeritValue

Copa Holdings, S.A.

CPAdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Copa Holdings, S.A. earns about 12% on invested capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $129.5 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.51B1$2.97B2$3.46B3$3.45B3$3.62B3
Net income$43.8M4$348.1M5$514.1M6$608.1M6$671.6M6
Operating cash flow$507.3M7$758.5M8$1.04B9$996.8M9$1.15B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.43B10$1.44B11$1.46B12$1.67B13$1.98B13
Cash & equivalents$211.1M14$122.4M15$206.4M15$613.3M15$382.6M15
Diluted shares42.6M40.6M42.0M41.2M41.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$674.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$163.26
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$481.41

10 shares is a claim on $674.65 of net worth that earned you $163.26 last year, against $481.41 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
12% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 11%FY23 15%FY24 18%FY25 15%

It earned an average 12% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 39% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$129.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$514.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$157.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018938 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020427 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001345105-26-000019 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018938 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020427 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001345105-26-000019 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018938 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020427 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001345105-26-000019 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-079096 (Borrowings)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-018938 (Borrowings)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020427 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001345105-26-000019 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-020427 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001345105-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalents)