MeritValue

Coya Therapeutics, Inc.

COYAdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Coya Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -61% on equity, but has diluted owners by 546% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$6M2$3.55M3$7.95M3
Net income−$4.89M4−$12.2M5−$7.99M6−$14.9M7−$21.2M7
Operating cash flow−$3.9M8−$7.24M9−$11.2M10−$10.3M11−$10.7M11
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$4.34M12$5.93M13$32.6M14$38.3M15$46.8M15
Diluted shares2.6M2.6M10.2M15.2M16.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$25.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.69
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $25.72 of net worth that earned you −$12.69 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-61% avg · 5y
FY21 -134%FY22 —FY23 -22%FY24 -38%FY25 -49%

It earned an average -61% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+546% shares · 5y

Share count is up 546% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033161 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040782 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107281 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010599 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033161 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040782 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107281 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010599 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033161 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040782 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107281 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-010599 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-033161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-040782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-107281 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)