Coursera, Inc.

COURdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Coursera, Inc. earns about -17% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 44% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15 and $15.86 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$415.3M1$523.8M2$635.8M3$694.7M3$757.5M3
Net income−$145.2M4−$175.4M5−$116.6M6−$79.5M6−$51M6
Operating cash flow$1.75M7−$38.1M8$29.7M9$95.4M9$108.7M9
Capital expenditure$1.55M10$1.58M11$1.1M12$1.6M12$1.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$192,0007−$39.6M8$28.6M9$93.8M9$107.2M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$580.7M13$320.8M14$656.3M15$726.1M15$792.6M15
Diluted shares113.6M145.3M151.0M157.4M163.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.81
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.54
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $38.81 of net worth that earned you −$3.11 and generated $6.54 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-17% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -25%FY23 -19%FY24 -13%FY25 -8%

It earned about -17% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+44% shares · 5y

Share count is up 44% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15 and $15.86 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$93.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$93.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.02
Base5.0%$15
Bull10.0%$17.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651562-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651562-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651562-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651562-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651562-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651562-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651562-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651562-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651562-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651562-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651562-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651562-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001651562-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001651562-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001651562-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)