MeritValue

COTY INC.

COTYdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'

The thesis, from the filings

COTY INC. earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.04 and $2.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$5.3B1$5.55B2$6.12B3$5.89B3$5.81B3
Net income$259.5M4$508.2M5$89.4M6−$367.9M6−$604.8M6
Operating cash flow$726.6M7$625.7M8$614.6M9$492.6M9$537.8M9
Capital expenditure$174.1M10$222.8M11$245.2M12$215M12$189.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$552.5M7$402.9M8$369.4M9$277.6M9$348.2M9
Total debt$4.43B13$4.24B14$3.84B15$3.96B16$3.06B16
Cash & equivalents$233.3M17$246.9M18$300.8M19$257.1M20$176.1M20
Diluted shares834.1M886.5M883.4M870.9M877.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$34.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$6.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.97
Debt you’d be carrying
$34.88

10 shares is a claim on $34.07 of net worth that earned you −$6.89 and generated $3.97 of cash last year, against $34.88 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY23 9%FY24 1%FY25 -4%FY26 -8%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 31% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.04 and $2.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$348.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.28
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$348.2M
Earnings Power Value
$1.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.8%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$89.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)9.06%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.28
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.28
Base0.0%$2.28
Bull5.0%$3.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001024305-26-000048 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)