MeritValue

COTY INC.

COTYdata completeness 100%14 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COTY INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.06 and $21.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.63B1$5.3B2$5.55B3$6.12B3$5.89B3
Net income−$201.3M4$259.5M5$508.2M6$89.4M6−$367.9M6
Operating cash flow$318.7M7$726.6M8$625.7M9$614.6M9$492.6M9
Capital expenditure$173.9M10$174.1M11$222.8M12$245.2M12$215M12
Free cash flow (derived)$144.8M7$552.5M8$402.9M9$369.4M9$277.6M9
Total debt$5.43B13$4.43B14$4.24B15$3.84B16$3.96B16
Cash & equivalents$253.5M17$233.3M18$246.9M19$300.8M20$257.1M20
Diluted shares764.8M834.1M886.5M883.4M870.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$45.46

10 shares is a claim on $40.68 of net worth that earned you −$4.22 and generated $3.19 of cash last year, against $45.46 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 6%FY23 9%FY24 1%FY25 -4%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 27% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.06 and $21.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$21.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$369.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$369.4M
Earnings Power Value
$1.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$89.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1.81
Base20.0%$9.58
Bull20.0%$9.58

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-22-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001024305-22-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001024305-23-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001024305-24-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001024305-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)