MeritValue

CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC

CORTdata completeness 88%26 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.17 and $17.89 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$366M1$401.9M2$482.4M3$675M3$761.4M3
Net income$112.5M4$101.4M5$106.1M6$141.2M6$99.7M6
Operating cash flow$167.9M7$120.3M8$126.7M9$198.3M9$142M9
Capital expenditure$469,00010$413,00011$139,00012$2.17M12$211,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$167.4M7$119.9M8$126.5M9$196.1M9$141.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$77.6M13$66.3M14$135.6M15$127.7M16$120.5M16
Diluted shares126.0M116.0M111.7M113.5M120.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$53.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$11.82
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $53.99 of net worth that earned you $8.31 and generated $11.82 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 23%FY23 29%FY24 26%FY25 13%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.17 and $17.89 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$16.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$141.8M
Earnings Power Value
$9.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$106.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.89
Base0.0%$17.89
Bull5.0%$21.97

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008167 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011091 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008167 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008167 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008167 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005581 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-005055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008167 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)