MeritValue

Cencora, Inc.

CORdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cencora, Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $82.5 and $535.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$214B1$238.6B2$262.2B3$294B3$321.3B3
Net income$1.54B4$1.7B5$1.75B6$1.51B6$1.55B6
Operating cash flow$2.67B7$2.7B8$3.91B9$3.48B9$3.88B9
Capital expenditure$438.2M10$496.3M11$458.4M12$487.2M12$668M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.23B7$2.21B8$3.45B9$3B9$3.21B9
Total debt$13.4B13$11.4B14$9.57B15$8.78B16$15.3B16
Cash & equivalents$2.55B17$3.39B18$2.59B18$3.13B18$4.36B18
Diluted shares208.5M211.2M204.6M200.3M195.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$77.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$79.61
Free cash flow it threw off
$164.29
Debt you’d be carrying
$784.86

10 shares is a claim on $77.25 of net worth that earned you $79.61 and generated $164.29 of cash last year, against $784.86 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 14%FY22 21%FY23 23%FY24 24%FY25 13%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $82.5 and $535.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$535.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.3%
  • fcfBase$3.21B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$354.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.3%
  • fcfBase$3.21B
Earnings Power Value
$82.5
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.55B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$37.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $354.65
The three cases
Bear0.0%$178.56
Base13.3%$354.65
Bull18.3%$444.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-23-000197 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-23-000197 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-23-000197 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-23-000197 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-22-000098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-23-000197 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001140859-24-000177 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001140859-25-000131 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)