MeritValue

CONOCOPHILLIPS

COPdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CONOCOPHILLIPS earns about 25% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $76.43 and $183.63 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$34.6B1$61B2$48.5B3$49.4B3$51.8B3
Net income$8.08B4$18.7B5$11B6$9.25B6$7.99B6
Operating cash flow$17B7$28.3B8$20B9$20.1B9$19.8B9
Capital expenditure$5.32B10$10.2B10———
Free cash flow (derived)$11.7B7$18.2B8———
Total debt$1.2B11$417M12$1.07B13$1.04B14$1.02B14
Cash & equivalents$5.03B15$6.46B16$5.64B17$5.61B18$6.5B18
Diluted shares1.33B1.28B1.21B1.18B1.25B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$514.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$63.73
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.14

10 shares is a claim on $514.48 of net worth that earned you $63.73 last year, against $8.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
25% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 46%FY23 26%FY24 16%FY25 15%

It earned about 25% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 15% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $76.43 and $183.63 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$183.63
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$11.7B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$169.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$11.7B
Earnings Power Value
$76.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.25B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$85.74
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $169.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$137.42
Base5.0%$169.62
Bull10.0%$208.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001163165-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001163165-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001163165-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001163165-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001163165-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001163165-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-23-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-23-000006 (DebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001163165-24-000010 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001163165-25-000012 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001163165-26-000009 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001163165-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001163165-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001163165-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001163165-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)