Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
CONdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. earns about 69% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 24% over 4 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.46 and $22.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.72B1 | $1.84B2 | $1.9B2 | $2.16B2 |
| Net income | $166.7M3 | $179.9M4 | $166.5M4 | $166.4M4 |
| Operating cash flow | $274.3M5 | $234.3M6 | $274.7M6 | $279.4M6 |
| Capital expenditure | $46M7 | $65M8 | $64.3M8 | $82.3M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $228.4M5 | $169.4M6 | $210.4M6 | $197.1M6 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $37.7M9 | $31.4M10 | $183.3M11 | $79.9M11 |
| Diluted shares | 103.8M | 104.2M | 114.2M | 128.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $30.65 of net worth that earned you $12.97 and generated $15.36 of cash last year.
It earned about 69% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 24% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.46 and $22.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$197.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$197.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$166.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $22.57 |
| Base | 0.0% | $22.57 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $27.88 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002014596-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002014596-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002014596-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002014596-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0002014596-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0002014596-26-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)