MeritValue

Compass, Inc.

COMPdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Compass, Inc. earns about -129% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 72% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.69 and $3.98 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.42B1$6.02B2$4.89B3$5.63B3$6.96B3
Net income−$494.1M4−$601.5M5−$321.3M6−$154.4M6−$58.5M6
Operating cash flow−$28.6M7−$291.7M8−$25.9M9$121.5M9$216.7M9
Capital expenditure$50.1M10$70.1M11$11.2M12$15.7M12$13.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$78.7M7−$361.8M8−$37.1M9$105.8M9$203.3M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$618.3M13$361.9M14$166.9M15$223.8M16$199M16
Diluted shares326.3M428.2M466.5M501.5M562.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$3.62
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $13.91 of net worth that earned you −$1.04 and generated $3.62 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-129% avg · 5y
FY21 -173%FY22 -305%FY23 -94%FY24 -66%FY25 -8%

It earned about -129% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+72% shares · 5y

Share count is up 72% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.69 and $3.98 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.98
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$105.8M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.04
Base5.0%$3.69
Bull10.0%$4.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563190-24-000039 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563190-25-000050 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563190-26-000057 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563190-24-000039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563190-25-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563190-26-000057 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563190-24-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563190-25-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563190-26-000057 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563190-24-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563190-25-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563190-26-000057 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001563190-23-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001563190-24-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001563190-25-000050 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001563190-26-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)