MeritValue

COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC

COLLdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC earns about 86% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.41 and $417.87 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$276.9M1$463.9M2$566.8M3$631.4M3$780.6M3
Net income$71.5M4−$25M5$48.2M6$69.2M6$62.9M6
Operating cash flow$103.6M7$124.2M8$274.7M9$205M9$329.3M9
Capital expenditure$1.94M10$1.62M11$461,00012$1.65M12$1.74M12
Free cash flow (derived)$101.6M7$122.6M8$274.3M9$203.3M9$327.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$186.4M13$173.7M14$238.9M15$70.6M15$231.3M15
Diluted shares41.0M33.8M41.8M40.4M39.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$75.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.84
Free cash flow it threw off
$82.51
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $75.99 of net worth that earned you $15.84 and generated $82.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
86% avg · 5y
FY21 84%FY22 128%FY23 —FY24 44%FY25 89%

It earned about 86% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.41 and $417.87 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$417.87
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$274.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$231.07
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$274.3M
Earnings Power Value
$16.41
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $231.07
The three cases
Bear0.0%$104.53
Base20.0%$231.07
Bull20.0%$231.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001526 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001801 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011992 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001526 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001801 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011992 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001526 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001801 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011992 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001526 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001801 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011992 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001526 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001801 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011992 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)