MeritValue

AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST

COLDdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST earns about -3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.79 and $7.33 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.68B1$2.87B2$2.62B3$2.6B3$2.54B3
Net income−$30.5M4−$19.4M5−$336.2M6−$94.3M6−$114.5M6
Operating cash flow$273.1M7$300M8$366.2M9$411.9M9$359.6M9
Capital expenditure$438.2M10$308.4M11$264.5M12$309.5M12$576.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$165.1M7−$8.37M8$101.7M9$102.4M9−$217.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$83M13$53.1M14$60.4M15$47.7M16$136.9M16
Diluted shares259.1M269.6M275.8M284.8M285.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.01
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $100.95 of net worth that earned you −$4.01 and generated −$7.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -1%FY23 -7%FY24 -3%FY25 -4%

It earned about -3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.79 and $7.33 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$7.33
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$101.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$101.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.56
Base5.0%$6.79
Bull10.0%$8.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008042 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012274 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008042 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012274 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008042 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012274 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008042 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012274 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-008770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012274 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)