COLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC.
COLBdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on fileCOLUMBIA BANKING SYSTEM, INC. earns about 11% on equity, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 82% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.21 and $62.06 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $83.3M1 | $85.8M2 | $134M3 | $149M3 | $177M3 |
| Net income | $420.3M4 | $336.8M5 | $349M6 | $534M6 | $550M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $662.7M7 | $1.07B8 | $670M9 | $659M9 | $746M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $15.5M10 | $27.1M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $647.2M7 | $1.04B8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $824.7M11 | $1.29B12 | $2.16B13 | $1.88B14 | $2.38B14 |
| Diluted shares | 131.0M | 129.7M | 195.9M | 209.3M | 239.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $327.87 of net worth that earned you $23 last year.
It earned about 11% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 82% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.21 and $62.06 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$647.2M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$647.2M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$420.3M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $48.63 |
| Base | 5.0% | $57.99 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $69.19 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887343-24-000089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887343-25-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887343-26-000088 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887343-24-000089 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887343-25-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887343-26-000088 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887343-24-000089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887343-25-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887343-26-000088 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887343-24-000089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000887343-23-000072 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000887343-24-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000887343-25-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000887343-26-000088 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)