Coinbase Global, Inc.
COINdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileCoinbase Global, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $5.06 and $45.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.84B1 | $3.19B2 | $3.11B3 | $6.56B3 | $7.18B3 |
| Net income | $3.62B4 | −$2.62B5 | $94.9M6 | $2.58B6 | $1.26B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $4.04B7 | −$1.59B8 | $673.4M9 | $3.1B9 | $2.43B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.91M10 | $2.93M10 | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $4.04B7 | −$1.59B8 | — | — | — |
| Total debt | $6.79B11 | $6.81B12 | $5.96B13 | $8.84B14 | $14.9B14 |
| Cash & equivalents | $7.12B15 | $4.43B16 | $5.49B17 | $9.31B17 | $11.3B17 |
| Diluted shares | 220.0M | 222.3M | 254.4M | 273.4M | 287.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $515.06 of net worth that earned you $43.88 last year, against $517.58 of debt.
It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 119% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $5.06 and $45.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$283.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$283.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.26B
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.65 |
| Base | 5.0% | $5.06 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $9.15 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-24-000022 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679788-25-000022 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679788-26-000015 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679788-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679788-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679788-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679788-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-23-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-23-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679788-24-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679788-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001679788-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001679788-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001679788-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001679788-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)