MeritValue

Cogent Biosciences, Inc.

COGTdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. earns about -63% on equity, but has diluted owners by 233% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$72.3M1−$140.2M2−$192.4M3−$255.9M3−$328.9M3
Operating cash flow−$58.8M4−$118.6M5−$153.6M6−$207.8M6−$264.4M6
Capital expenditure$1.72M7$6.86M8$2.8M9$573,0009$1.55M9
Free cash flow (derived)−$60.5M4−$125.5M5−$156.4M6−$208.4M6−$266M6
Total debt————$222.9M10
Cash & equivalents$219.7M11$139.9M12$53.2M13$98.2M14$312M14
Diluted shares38.7M58.7M79.7M103.9M128.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$49.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$25.52
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.64
Debt you’d be carrying
$17.29

10 shares is a claim on $49.37 of net worth that earned you −$25.52 and generated −$20.64 of cash last year, against $17.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-63% avg · 5y
FY21 -34%FY22 -55%FY23 -75%FY24 -100%FY25 -52%

It earned an average -63% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+233% shares · 5y

Share count is up 233% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019770 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026115 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-053334 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019770 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026115 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-053334 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019770 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026115 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-053334 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-053334 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-007729 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-019770 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-026115 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-053334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)