MeritValue

CHOICEONE FINANCIAL SERVICES INC

COFSdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CHOICEONE FINANCIAL SERVICES INC earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 82% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $17.51 and $70.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$64.6M1$89.1M2$113.9M3$12.8M4$19M4
Net income$22M5$23.6M6$21.3M7$26.7M7$28.2M7
Operating cash flow$37.7M8$44.3M9$46.3M10$47.1M10$31.8M10
Capital expenditure$2.76M11$1.16M12$4.23M13$1.71M13$6.63M13
Free cash flow (derived)$34.9M8$43.2M9$42.1M10$45.4M10$25.2M10
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$31.9M14$43.9M15$55.4M16$96.8M17$88M17
Diluted shares7.7M7.5M7.6M8.2M14.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$332.58
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$18
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $332.58 of net worth that earned you $20.14 and generated $18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 26%FY23 35%FY24 53%FY25 37%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+82% shares · 5y

Share count is up 82% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $17.51 and $70.74 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$70.74
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$42.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$62.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.4%
  • fcfBase$42.1M
Earnings Power Value
$17.51
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $62.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.28
Base6.4%$62.97
Bull11.4%$76.05

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030747 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036839 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030747 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036839 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030747 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036839 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030747 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036839 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-007584 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-030747 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-036839 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-105046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)