MeritValue

CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP

COFdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CAPITAL ONE FINANCIAL CORP earns about 86% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 22% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.56 and $1,607.19 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.78B1$5.42B2$5.65B3$5.92B3$8.06B3
Net income$12.4B4$7.36B5$4.89B6$4.75B6$2.45B6
Operating cash flow$12.3B7$13.8B8$20.6B9$18.2B9$27.7B9
Capital expenditure$698M10$934M11$961M12$1.2B12$1.58B12
Free cash flow (derived)$11.6B7$12.9B8$19.6B9$17B9$26.1B9
Total debt$820M13$883M14$538M15$562M16$1.09B16
Cash & equivalents$22.1B17$31.3B18$43.8B18$43.7B18$62.1B18
Diluted shares444.2M393.2M383.4M383.6M541.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,098.95
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$45.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$482.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$20.08

10 shares is a claim on $2,098.95 of net worth that earned you $45.32 and generated $482.91 of cash last year, against $20.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
86% avg · 5y
FY21 34%FY22 48%FY23 102%FY24 169%FY25 79%

It earned about 86% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+22% shares · 5y

Share count is up 22% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 33% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.56 and $1,607.19 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,607.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$19.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,086.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth15.1%
  • fcfBase$19.6B
Earnings Power Value
$93.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.89B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$137.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years15.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,086.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$630.42
Base15.1%$1,086.31
Bull20.0%$1,294.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 15.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-24-000094 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-24-000094 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-24-000094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-24-000094 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-23-000117 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-24-000094 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000927628-25-000092 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000927628-26-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)