MeritValue

51Talk Online Education Group

COEdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

51Talk Online Education Group earns about -647% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.39 and $0.41 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$788,0001$15M2$27.1M3$50.7M3$95.6M3
Net income$18.7M4−$42.6M5−$15M6−$7.24M6−$16.8M6
Operating cash flow−$105M7−$45.7M8$559,0009$5.83M9$11.8M9
Capital expenditure$3.8M10$5,00011$287,00012$308,00012$2.29M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$108.8M7−$45.7M8$272,0009$5.52M9$9.52M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$24.6M13$18.2M14$21.3M14$27.8M14$38.9M14
Diluted shares328.5M335.6M341.1M347.1M355.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$0.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$0.47
Free cash flow it threw off
$0.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$0.88 of net worth that earned you −$0.47 and generated $0.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-647% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -647%FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned about -647% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.39 and $0.41 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$0.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.52M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$5.52M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$0.33
Base5.0%$0.39
Bull10.0%$0.45

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000918 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047273 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000918 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047273 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000918 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047273 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-054645 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000918 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047273 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-054013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-047273 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)