MeritValue

Co-Diagnostics, Inc.

CODXdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. earns about -95% on invested capital, and has bought back 96% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$97.9M1$34.2M2$6.81M3$3.92M4$622,4894
Net income$36.7M5−$14.2M6−$35.3M7−$37.6M8−$46.9M8
Operating cash flow$41.1M9$6.57M10−$22.1M11−$29.2M12−$29.1M12
Capital expenditure$669,46313$1.43M14$1.37M15$748,35216$700,04716
Free cash flow (derived)$40.4M9$5.14M10−$23.4M11−$29.9M12−$29.8M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$88.6M17$23M18$14.9M19$2.94M20$11.9M20
Diluted shares29.9M31.5M29.3M1.0M1.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$155.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$352.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$224.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $155.08 of net worth that earned you −$352.55 and generated −$224.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-95% avg · 5y
FY21 80%FY22 -16%FY23 -43%FY24 -58%FY25 -438%

It earned an average -95% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−96% shares · 5y

Share count is down 96% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007925 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009955 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000932 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014158 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007925 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009955 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000932 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007925 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009955 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000932 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007925 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009955 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000932 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014158 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-007925 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-009955 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000932 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)