MeritValue

Coronado Global Resources Inc.

CODQLdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Coronado Global Resources Inc. earns about 17% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.15B1$3.57B2$2.89B3$2.51B3$1.95B3
Net income$189.4M4$771.7M4$156.1M4−$108.9M5−$432.1M5
Operating cash flow$442M6$926.6M7$268.3M8$74M8−$80M8
Capital expenditure$89.7M9$199.7M10$237.2M11$248.1M11$244.8M11
Free cash flow (derived)$352.4M6$726.9M7$31.1M8−$174.1M8−$324.8M8
Total debt$22.3M12$12.7M12$470.7M13$824.6M14$1.37B14
Cash & equivalents$437.9M15$334.6M16$339.3M16$339.6M16$173M16
Diluted shares156.8M167.8M167.8M168.1M167.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.76
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$25.77
Free cash flow it threw off
−$19.37
Debt you’d be carrying
$81.92

10 shares is a claim on $38.76 of net worth that earned you −$25.77 and generated −$19.37 of cash last year, against $81.92 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 92%FY23 5%FY24 -11%FY25 -23%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 6050% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$9.65
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$156.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000028 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000021 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-23-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000021 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000024 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)