MeritValue

Coda Octopus Group, Inc.

CODAdata completeness 88%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Coda Octopus Group, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.8 and $5.02 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$21.3M1$22.2M2$19.4M3$20.3M4$26.6M4
Net income$4.95M5$4.3M6$3.12M7$3.65M8$4.13M8
Operating cash flow$3.27M9$6.73M10$2.39M11$2.45M12$7.21M12
Capital expenditure$850,89413$466,47114$2.02M15$502,52516$1.17M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.42M9$6.26M10$367,92811$1.95M12$6.04M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$17.7M17$22.9M18$24.4M19$22.5M20$28.7M20
Diluted shares11.3M11.3M11.3M11.3M11.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$51.65
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.37
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $51.65 of net worth that earned you $3.67 and generated $5.37 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 21%FY22 21%FY23 13%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.8 and $5.02 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.95M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$5.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.95M
Earnings Power Value
$3.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$4.13M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$6.56
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $5.02
The three cases
Bear0.0%$5.02
Base0.0%$5.02
Bull5.0%$5.62

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001493152-23-002840 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001493152-24-004039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001493152-25-004075 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008174 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001493152-23-002840 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001493152-24-004039 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001493152-25-004075 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008174 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001493152-23-002840 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001493152-24-004039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001493152-25-004075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008174 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001493152-23-002840 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001493152-24-004039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001493152-25-004075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008174 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-31 · accession 0001493152-23-002840 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-31 · accession 0001493152-24-004039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-31 · accession 0001493152-25-004075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K/A · period ending 2024-10-31 · accession 0001493152-26-008174 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)