MeritValue

Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd

CNTBdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Connect Biopharma Holdings Ltd earns about -1230% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——$01$26M2$64,0002
Net income−$202.3M3−$118.1M3−$62.1M4−$15.6M5−$55.5M5
Operating cash flow−$84.3M6−$101.5M6−$47.7M7−$23.6M8−$51.2M8
Capital expenditure$3.83M9$4.41M9$81,00010$750,00011$434,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$88.2M6−$105.9M6−$47.8M7−$24.4M8−$51.6M8
Total debt—$012$012——
Cash & equivalents$267.7M13$78.9M14$105.7M15$78.2M16$38.3M16
Diluted shares55.1M55.0M55.1M55.2M55.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.97
Free cash flow it threw off
−$9.28
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $7.54 of net worth that earned you −$9.97 and generated −$9.28 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-1230% avg · 5y
FY21 -3513%FY22 -117%FY23 —FY24 -87%FY25 -1201%

It earned an average -1230% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835268-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835268-24-000014 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835268-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835268-24-000014 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835268-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835268-24-000014 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835268-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835268-24-000014 (Borrowings)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001835268-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001835268-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001835268-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)