MeritValue

Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc

CNTAdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc earns about -379% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 81% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$6.85M2$03$15M3
Net income−$381.1M4−$216.2M5−$151.1M6−$235.8M7−$197.5M7
Operating cash flow−$135.1M8−$200.5M9−$160.3M10−$142.1M11−$193.8M11
Capital expenditure$186,00012$1.14M13$169,00014$34,00015$371,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$135.3M8−$201.7M9−$160.5M10−$142.1M11−$194.2M11
Total debt$75.7M16$69.8M17$75.7M18$217.9M19$220.2M19
Cash & equivalents$595.1M20$393.6M21$128M22$383.2M23$61.3M23
Diluted shares75.2M93.4M96.2M114.5M135.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.82
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.55
Free cash flow it threw off
−$14.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.22

10 shares is a claim on $38.82 of net worth that earned you −$14.55 and generated −$14.31 of cash last year, against $16.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-379% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -1344%FY23 -71%FY24 -78%FY25 -23%

It earned an average -379% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+81% shares · 5y

Share count is up 81% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 191% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth —

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001847903-23-000063 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001847903-23-000063 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001847903-23-000063 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001847903-23-000063 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001847903-23-000063 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001847903-24-000054 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001847903-25-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001847903-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)