MeritValue

Core Natural Resources, Inc.

CNRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Core Natural Resources, Inc. earns about 20% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $57.76 and $338.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.26B1$2.28B2$2.51B3$2.16B3$4.16B3
Net income$34.1M4$467M5$655.9M6$286.4M6−$153.2M6
Operating cash flow$305.6M7$651M8$857.9M9$476.4M9$305.8M9
Capital expenditure$132.8M10$171.5M11$167.8M12$178M12$284.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$172.8M7$479.5M8$690.2M9$298.4M9$21.2M9
Total debt$1.21B13$693.7M14$367M15$366.9M16$789.6M16
Cash & equivalents$149.9M17$273.1M18$199.4M19$408.2M20$432.2M20
Diluted shares35.4M35.7M33.1M29.8M51.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$715.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$4.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$153.67

10 shares is a claim on $715.79 of net worth that earned you −$29.82 and generated $4.12 of cash last year, against $153.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
20% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 32%FY23 45%FY24 20%FY25 -5%

It earned about 20% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 35% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $57.76 and $338.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$338.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$298.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$182.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$298.4M
Earnings Power Value
$57.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$286.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $182.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$76.01
Base20.0%$182.15
Bull20.0%$182.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001710366-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001710366-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001710366-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001710366-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)